Tens of thousands of fighting for Russia are dying unnoticed on a line in Ukraine

Over 95,000 people fighting for the Russian army died because the war in Ukraine enters the fourth year, according to data analyzed by the BBC.

This figure does not include those who were killed in the service of self -proclaimed Donbas republics, which we estimate is between 21,000 and 23,500 fighters.

The BBC Russian, an independent media group Mediazon and volunteers have been counting death of February 2022.

The list includes the names of the deceased we confirmed using information from official reports, newspapers, social media and new monuments and graves. The real number of deaths is believed to be much higher.

Daniil Dudnikov, a 21-year-old history student at Donjeck National University, read international relations and enjoyed swimming.

On the first day of the Russian full invasion of Ukraine, February 24, 2022. The authorities forcibly mobilized Daniil in the self -proclaimed People’s Republic of Donjecsk and sent it to the Kharkiv region.

Just a month later, March 25, Daniil disappeared in action. Of the 18 soldiers in his unit, no one returned. 13 was killed and five were trapped. Four months later, after exchanging prisoners, those who survived confirmed that Daniil was one of the 13 killed in the fight.

Daniil’s story mirrors those of thousands of other inhabitants from the self -proclaimed Donetsk and Luhan People’s Republic, created in 2014 by Moscow separatists who are supported in the predominantly Russian parts of Eastern Ukraine.

With a full Russian invasion 2022, civilian men are massively made, often inadequately trained and poorly equipped before being assigned to almost impossible missions. This has resulted in the stunning number of dead and missing soldiers, whose fate is often unknown to months or years.

According to our analysis of published reports on the obituary and missing persons from the regions, most of the deaths in Donbass militia occurred during the first year of invasion, which is a toll comparable to the total number of confirmed Russian military losses in the same period – 25,769 deaths.

Despite many people in the occupied parts of Eastern Ukraine had relatives or friends in Russia, they are far less integrated into the everyday life of the country, which makes their losses less “visible” ordinary Russians.

The second large part of the Russian losses were recruited by the convicts in prisons.

Ildus Sadykov was 59 when he was arrested for theft of a bag at the Moscow train station. He was the fourth time he ended up in prison, spent a total of 16 years behind bars for separate criminal beliefs.

“They told me,” If you don’t want to go back to prison, sign a contract. “They assured me that at my age I would not have been sent to the front, just assigned to an auxiliary role. He remembers, speaking as a prisoner of war after being captured by the Ukrainian forces in the summer of 2024.

After exchanging a prisoner, he was returned to Russia, where he sent back to the lines. This month, Ildus Sadykov was killed in a fight.

Currently, the Russian war base database includes 16,171 convicted criminals who have been recruited from the criminal colonies to battle. These are just cases where we can check criminal files through open sources. The actual number of deceased convicts is probably far higher.

By including the analysis of missed documents of private military companies Wagner, we can estimate that prisoners can make as many as a third of Russian military deaths over three years of invasion. Many of these individuals lived in repair facilities, for years effectively cut off from wider society, years.

“Losses are most felt by segments of Russian society with less resources, whether educational, financially or political,” says Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, director of the Russia Institute at King’s College London.

“The Kremlin seems to have designed it in this way, ensuring that the most elected parts of society remain mainly excluded since the war. Hence the employment of prisoners and foreign mercenaries.”

“In small cities, people are by far more aware of the scope of the victims. The war hit social groups who miss funds not only for protest, but even to openly express their views. Discussions are limited to private conversations,” he adds.

Only 30% of the Russians are directly exposed to the war, either fighting in IT or family relationships for fighters, according to a public opinion survey from the Chronicle project in September 2024. The share of Ukrainians who know someone killed or wounded is almost almost 80%.

Measuring true support for the war in Russia is difficult, because many respondents are afraid to speak sincerely. But a study ordered by the Prophet project, supported by the University of Helsinki, revealed that 43% of the surveyed Russians had openly supported the invasion.

“Would public views on the war be different if more people knew Pale personally?” asks the leading Russian sociologist Viktor Vakhshtayn. “No doubt.”

The actual losses of Russia are almost certainly significantly higher than they can detect open code data. Military analysts we consulted with estimates that a BBC research, based on tombs, war memories and obituary, probably recorded only 45% to 65% of total victims.

Added, the bodies of many killed in recent months have probably remained on the battlefield, as they take them to take over living soldiers to risk exposure to drones.

Given the above estimate, the true number of Russian military deaths could range from 146,194 to 211,169. If he adds estimated losses of DPR and LPR force, the total number of deaths aligned with Russian may be ranging from 167,194 to 234,669.

Russia has last officially reported on its military losses in September 2022 and cited less than 6,000 deaths.

Ukraine last updated her accident information in December 2024, when President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged 43,000 Ukrainian deaths among soldiers and officers. Western analysts believe that the figure is underrated.

The Ukrainian loss website, which assembled out of open sources accidents, currently cites more than 70,400 surnames of Ukrainian soldiers. Our check of a random sample of 400 of them found that the database was reliable.

The Ukrainian accident list is probably more complete than Russian equivalent, because the Ukrainian presidential decrees on posthumous military awards remain publicly available. In Russia, such data is classified.

As the war approaches her fourth year, global attention has shifted to a new US administration for peace negotiations. We continue to monitor the activity in Russian military cemeteries and war memories, and analyze the obituary, which have increased abruptly since September last year.