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Russian forces are moving towards Ukraine’s Dnipro region, sidestepping the expected heavy urban battle in the eastern Donetsk region.
Since the summer, Ukraine has been preparing for urban warfare in Pokrovsk, a key logistics and transport hub for the remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donetsk region.
But Russian forces advancing from the south are now heading west of Pokrovsk and are less than 7 km from the highway leading into the Dnipropetrovsk region, according to the Deep State mapping group, which is affiliated with Ukraine’s defense ministry.
“They understand that they will lose a lot of their forces trying to take Pokrovsk, so they decided to follow a different strategy and approach from the south and bypass it,” Andriy Cherniak, a senior official in Ukraine’s military intelligence service, told the Financial Times. on Sunday.
“They will try to cut off all supplies to Pokrovsko so that our forces can leave,” he added.
The Russian Defense Ministry announced on Sunday the capture of the village of Yantarnoye in the Donetsk region, approximately 50 km south of Pokrovsk, following “active offensive operations”.
“The border of the Dnipropetrovsk region is now approximately 6.5 km away,” Russian military blogger Voenkor Kotenok posted on his Telegram channel on Sunday.
The next largest city within Dnipropetrovsk is Pavlograd, the main Ukrainian military base. The region also includes Dnipro, the fourth largest city in Ukraine.
How quickly Russian forces will be able to take over the highway to Dnipropetrovsk depends on the scope fortress in that area as well as the Ukrainian population, which is increasing short offer.
One Ukrainian soldier whose brigade is fighting in the Pokrovskoe area, who spoke to the FT on condition of anonymity, said the terrain would also be a factor, describing it as “deep, muddy and impassable”.
Russian forces capture thousands of square kilometers of Donetsk region in 2024 The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank, said Russia seized roughly 4,200 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory last year, most of it in the Donetsk region.
This momentum put them in a position to take the highway to the Dnipropetrovsk region, which would cut off the Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk, as well as force the Ukrainian forces to defend from two directions at once.
“They’re trying to get as much territory as possible so they have something to negotiate with when their forces eventually run out,” Cherniak said.
Ukraine announced on Saturday that it had taken its first North Korean prisoners of war from Russia’s southern Kursk region, providing further evidence of Pyongyang’s involvement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the captured men were receiving medical attention, adding that “the world must know the truth about what is happening.”
Ukraine launched a renewed push in Russia’s Kursk region last week, after losing about half the territory captured in its incursion in August. The occupation of Russian territory is still seen by Ukraine and its allies as key to any potential negotiations.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Seoul on Monday that Kursk is important to Ukraine. “It’s certainly something that would be a factor in any negotiations that could happen next year,” he added.
Cartography and animation by Steven Bernard