German conservative leader Friedrich Merz has spent the last two months raising social democrats in the country – accusing them of stagnant economy, uncontrolled illegal migration and an increase in the end right.
Now that they have appeared as his only possible coalition partners, he wants to be friends again.
Merzwho is ready to become a chancellor after his Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) beat the federal elections on Sunday, he said that the Government with the SPD “what we want.” He was now “determined to maintain constructive, good, fast conversations” with the party of the departure chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Who are the key players and how fast can the conversations conclude?
Merz stated that he would “talk in the next few days” with the SPD, setting up the goal of signing the coalition agreement “around Easter” in the second half of April.
His negotiating partner will be SPD’s teammate Lars Klingbeil, although Merz said he had also planned to fulfill Scholz to ensure a smooth transition of power. Merz advisers have announced that counseling will be performed to ensure that Scholz, who will remain a caregiver career, represents the views of the future leader abroad. Scholz will attend an EU emergencies to discuss European defense.
The two sides will also establish a joint working group for the production of a coalition agreement.
SPD and conservatives seem to be moving quickly. Klingbeil, 47, who is expected to become the new head of the SPD Parliamentary Group, said his party is “ready to talk” with Merz.
Klingbeil said he would quickly reorganize his party after the worst defeat of the election since 1887. “The world is very turbulent and the decisions are not waiting,” he said.
“We see what the new US government is doing or does not work. We do not know what decisions could be made and in the next few days given Ukraine and Germany, “said Klingbeil, who was a spokesman for the party about external affairs.” German politics make Europe strong in this historical phase. And this requires a social democracy that is capable of acting.”
What are the points of healing?
The CDU/CSU will focus on its economic plan of PRO-Business, which includes reduction of taxes, reducing well-being and regulation. The SPD will seek to be firmly held on social consumption, including a plan to ensure a minimum pension level, said Andreas Busch, a professor of political science at Göttingen University.
“One side will have to accept that the other can seek some success,” he said. “You need a creative rifle.”
Another potential bone of quarrels is migration. The theme is the source of friction during the campaign between Merz and Scholz when he first tried to strongly arrange the government in the border check and limiting the right -wing of the asylum by launching a proposal with the help of the far right alternative to Germany.
Parties can also clash on how to finance the increasing needs of investment in defense and investment in infrastructure, at the same time in accordance with the strict restriction of the Constitution in public borrowing.
Henning Meyer, professor of public policy at Tübingen University, near the SPD, said that the constitutional reform of the debt brake – one of the central requests of the party – would be a key feature of the State Agreement.
The matter could be resolved even before the start of the coalition conversation. Now that it is clear that the CDU/CSU-SPD connection would not hold the Bundestag Supermajority needed to pass the constitutional change, Merz stated on Monday that he would investigate Re -departing parliament To adopt a constitutional amendment on March 25 before the new legislative body was set on March 25.
Another topic of the discussion will be the distribution of ministries. The CDU indicated his desire to run the Ministry of Defense. The SPD could be requested by the Ministry of the Interior, for which the name of the current defense minster is circulated by Boris Pistorius. The CDU could retain the Ministry of Finance, while SPD could be approved by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs – with Klingbeil potentially occupying the place.
Who has the strongest?
Coalition conversations could hit Snags, but none of the two parties with the other has a huge influence.
“The CDU has come out far stronger than the SPD choice, but SPD is the only appropriate coalition partner for the CDU,” Busch said. “At least two parties agree that fast actions were needed and both pointed to focus on delivery.”
They have an example of Scholz’s unfortunate coalition with green and liberal free democrats that are still fresh.
This three-page government quickly descended into acryrmia due to the full Russian invasion of Ukraine, and ended before the term last year when Scholz fired the FDP leader and Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner.
This time, there is talk of a program renovated every year, which is focused on a handful of priority things.
The SPD could decide to put a coalition agreement on a member of the member, which could add a layer of uncertainty, given the sharp campaign that Merz led against SPD. Such vote could delay coalition conversations for about two weeks, Meyer estimated.
How firm would this coalition be?
The connection between the once largest parties in Germany can no longer be called “great coalition”, since the SPD to third place is transferred to the far right and ultimate left. Their 52 -firm majority fades compared to the previous readings of this coalition structure.
The first of the four so-called large coalitions, led by CDU leader Kurt Georg Kiesinger, weighed 90 percent in Bundestag in 1966. The first of the three Governments of Angela Merkel with SPD in 2005 represented the 73 percent majority and its fourth, 2018, relied on 56 percent of the seats.
However, both parties will get closer to fear of further-notice by AFD and the ultimate left Die Linke.
“Maybe even our last opportunity” is to regain voters’ confidence again, Merz said on Monday.
“I know it will be difficult.. But I count that the SPD will recognize that it is urgently needed,” he added. “If we fail in this parliamentary term, then we will not talk about another normal change of government in Germany in 2029.”
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