Four ways this saga could go

In recent weeks, US President-elect Donald Trump has shown renewed interest in taking control of Greenland, Denmark’s largely autonomous territory in the Arctic and the world’s largest island.

He first indicated an intention to buy Greenland in 2019, during his first term as president, but this week went further, refusing to rule out the possibility of an economic or military power taking control of it.

Danish and European officials responded negatively, saying that Greenland is not for sale and that its territorial integrity must be preserved.

So how could this unusual situation play out, with two NATO allies in conflict over a vast territory that is 80% covered in ice, but has considerable untapped mineral wealth?

And how might aspirations for independence among Greenland’s population of 56,000, under Danish control for 300 years, affect the final outcome?

Here we look at four possible scenarios for the future of Greenland.

There is speculation that Trump’s move is just a brag, a move to get Denmark to step up security in Greenland in the face of threats from Russia and China, which are seeking influence in the region.

last month, Denmark has announced a new $1.5bn (£1.2bn) military package. for the Arctic. It was prepared before Trump’s statements, but the announcement just hours after them was described by the Danish defense minister as an “irony of fate.”

“What was important in what Trump said was that Denmark has to fulfill its obligations in the Arctic or it has to let the US do it,” says Elisabet Svane, chief political correspondent for the Politiken newspaper.

Marc Jacobsen, an associate professor at the Royal Danish Defense College, sees it as a case of Trump “positioning himself before taking office”, while Greenland uses the opportunity to gain more international authority as an important step towards independence.

So even if Trump were to lose interest in Greenland now, which Professor Jacobsen sees as the most likely scenario, he has certainly put the issue in the spotlight.

But Greenlandic independence has been on the agenda for many years, and some say the debate could go in the opposite direction.

“I have noticed that in the last few days the Greenlandic prime minister is more calm in his comments – ie yes, we want independence, but in the long run,” says Svane.

There is a general consensus in Greenland that independence will eventually happen, and also that Denmark will accept and ratify it if Greenland votes for it.

However, Greenland is also unlikely to vote for independence unless its citizens are given guarantees that they can keep the subsidies they currently receive from Denmark to pay for things like healthcare and the welfare system.

“The Prime Minister of Greenland may be on the offensive now, but in the event that he does call a referendum, he will need some kind of compelling narrative on how to save Greenland’s economy and welfare system,” Ulrik Gad, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, said. for the BBC.

One possible next step is a free association – something like the US with the Pacific nations of the Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau.

Denmark previously opposed this status for both Greenland and the Faroe Islands, but according to dr. Gadu, the current Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is not categorically against it.

“Danish understanding of Greenland’s historical experience is much better than it was 20 years ago,” he says, and Denmark accepts colonial responsibility.

Recent discussions “might convince (Frederiksen) to say – better to keep Denmark in the Arctic, to keep some kind of connection with Greenland, even if it’s looser,” he adds.

But even if Greenland manages to get rid of Denmark, in recent years it has become clear that it cannot get rid of the USA. The Americans never really left after taking control of the island in World War II and consider it vital to their security.

The 1951 agreement confirmed Denmark’s basic sovereignty over the island, but effectively gave the US whatever it wanted.

dr. Gad said Greenlandic officials have been in contact with the last two US administrations about Washington’s role.

“Now they know the US will never leave,” he said.

There has been speculation that Trump’s economic rhetoric is potentially the biggest threat to Denmark – with the US drastically increasing tariffs on Danish, or even EU goods, forcing Denmark to make some kind of concession on Greenland.

Professor Jacobsen says that Danish governments have been preparing for this, and not only because of the Arctic territory.

Trump has threatened universal tariffs of 10% on all US imports which, among other things, could significantly disrupt European growth, and some Danish and other European companies are now considering setting up production bases in the US.

Possible options for raising tariffs include invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, Benjamin Cote of international law firm Pillsbury told the MarketWatch website.

Pharmaceuticals is one of the main Danish industries that could be affected. The US gets products such as hearing aids and most insulin from Denmark, as well as the diabetes drug Ozempic, which is made by the Danish company Novo Nordisk.

Analysts say the spike in prices that would result from these measures would not go down well with the American public.

The “nuclear option” seems far-fetched, but given that Trump has not ruled out military action, it must be considered.

In fact, it would not be difficult for the US to take control, given that they already have bases and plenty of troops in Greenland.

“The US is already in de facto control,” Professor Jacobsen said, adding that Trump’s remarks appeared ill-informed and that he did not understand the point.

Additionally, any use of military force by Washington would create an international incident.

“If they attack Greenland, they will invade NATO,” says Svane. “So it stops there. Article 5 would have to be triggered. And if a NATO country attacks NATO, then there is no NATO.”

Dr Gad says Trump sounds like Chinese President Xi Jinping talking about Taiwan or Russia’s Vladimir Putin talking about Ukraine.

“He says it’s legitimate for us to take this piece of land,” he says. “If we take him really seriously, this is a bad sign for the entire Western alliance.”

Additional reporting by George Sandeman