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Your guide for what American choices 2024 means for Washington and the world
The markets were fools on Saturday, and on Monday the judges of the character were missed. When Donald Trump announced Tariffs against American neighbors last weekend, investors who talked about the misunderstood since November, a deceptively pragmatic US president were exposed as naive. 48 hours. Then more or more of them avenged them. The tariffs were rejected in exchange for Canadian and Mexican persuasions of the cross -border drugs of drugs and other Trump bugs. Investment banks can delay the client’s ovcari calls by March.
The world, of course, would be silly for relaxation. Trump has the potential to break the trading system in the coming years, even if it does so in harmony and starts. But if nothing else, for the past few days there have been education in the art of dealing with him.
Because Trump is so fast, people tend to miss him to settle quickly. He almost never drives such a heavy hit as he seems to promise his belligerent way. In 2020, China bought some peace with a vague and difficult promise to reduce the trade imbalance of the two countries. (“The biggest job that anyone has ever seen,” called himwith an emphasis on the external perception.) Likewise, he did not abandon oil as much as he conveyed the revised version of it as a personal coup. Because he is an egoist, not a fanatic, what he cares about is his reputation of the contract manufacturer. To continue this, he needs regular flow. And so their content becomes secondary. We can mock, but the lesson here for the countries facing Trump is encouraging: give him something he can call win. The concession does not have to be huge and he will actually work in conversation about his importance.
He doesn’t bother all so much in which he is paid for. Trump opened what Henry Kissinger called “Linkge”. If he gets upset about one thing, he can pamper himself with a gesture on something that is obviously unrelated. Want to avoid a trade war, Europe? Spend more on defense. Want to prevent the betrayal of Ukraine? To alleviate the regulation of the technological sector. It is difficult to know what is more about Trump’s truck with his northern and southern colleagues: the little their concessions (Justin Trudeau is appointed by Fentanil “Car”) or the fact that the economy and drug policies like this are first placed.
So, yes, Trump threatens to throw out industrial investments from Europe to the United States. But Europe is spoiled to offer him things, precisely because his complaints are so many. In this sense, it could be easier to definating than Joe Biden, who did not think that NATO was a club of free edge or EU conspiracy against a silicon valley. Nothing could offer him Europe on these fronts, which will make him easier for the US first industrial plan. With Trump, it could exist. The paranoia of his worldview – in which almost everyone has been chasing now, almost all the time – means that there are a lot of entry points for negotiations.
If Trump is this paradoxical thing, an aggressive soft touch, then he appears in his personal relationships, not just in his international state. Think about all the once domestic Republicans who found their way back to his mercy. The acquisition in Trump’s dog’s house is embarrassing, but often short, as everything should be done to get out is to stop fighting him. His own vice president is a former critic. So is his Secretary of State. This should not be mistaken for magnificence or great souls on Trump’s side. Instead, I doubt, he would rather have a slow combustion if someone had been undergoing him for years than a one -time maximum of destruction. There is something of Caesar in his belief that the ultimate emasculation of the enemy is to spare them.
In fact, Trump could even prefer former villains who bend his knee over his loyal, longtime fans. (Because where is the feeling of conquering with them?) If so, David Lammy and Peter Mandelson, far from the unpleasant choice while British Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Washington has a perverse meaning. Their past jerks with the president is a point, not a responsibility. If Trump’s intimidator had been a guarantee of anything from the beginning, Nigel Farage in the court of Maga would not have been so uncertain.
From time to time, whether in a personal empire or geopolitical, a small step towards Trump has taken well accepted. One of the ugliness of his statements is hard to see. When the US president wants to “take” Gaza and develop it into the Levantine Cote d’Azur, throwing his bone – to the store, on anything – looks pointless. But the record is the record. Of course, the problem with this argument is that it just gives itself. If the president’s habit of proclaiming a victory in disputes is almost as easy, as he begins, it becomes a trop, a thing that people know, his ego will not have him. It will enhance their demands.
Until then, the countries that are arguing with him must use what they have. Trump’s restlessness is moving away after “agreement”, as a proof of his personal influence, is something that can be used. In the end, regardless of the news of the savings of the face on Monday morning, the markets are still naive to him. For anyone who acknowledges that trade and internationalism has erected a lot of humanity, there are no good news about the next four years, only the least thieves of the storm mode.