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“The world will not wait for us,” said Friedrich Merz, as he celebrated his victory by his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the German parliamentary elections on Sunday. But wait just what we have to do for a new coalition to take power in Berlin.
After four years of outflows and dysfunction, Germany is poorly needed by a stable, effective and ambitious government. Europe longs for her. The foundations of German post -war success are decaying. Open markets are closed by American protectionism and Chinese state capitalism. The US security guarantee for Europe is all just, while Russia is an increasing threat. And a worrying major minority in Germany loses faith in the main policy – although an estimated 84 percent turnout on Sunday is impressive evidence of the overall dedication of Germany with a democratic process (consider, JD Vance).
Faster with these huge problems would be a high order for any government. But politics in Germany, as elsewhere in Europe, is more and more fragmented and polarized. After the bruising campaign, where the main parties often focused on each other, Merz must now show that it can be reconciled, which is not an obvious feature. Although the CDU was a clear winner and could request the office, he won about 29 percent of the vote – which, in addition to the last elections in 2021, is the worst result of the party since 1949. Furthermore, Merz was much less popular than his previous predecessor Olaf Scholz was when the Social Democrat took over his duty.
Merz’s lightest option is a large coalition with Social Democrats (SPD) – but without Scholz, who refused to serve under the CDU leader. After nearly four years of omissions in running the arguing coalition with green and liberal free democrats, forever self -sufficient Scholz took his party to the worst defeats in 137 years. The magic in opposition would do SPD well, but there is a management, and alternatives to Merz would be worse.
CDU and SPD should be able to agree on a reduction in taxes, more public investments, higher spending for the defense and suppression of asylum seekers. But the conversations could be long and difficult, not the least because Merz directed his fun to the right. He passed the parliamentary proposal by calling for a drastic immigration action with the support of the extremely right alternative to Germany, while insisting that he would never work with him. He won several votes, as the monkey right rarely did, but he burned confidence in the SPD.
The Great Coalition Agreement is feasible. The question is whether it will be more than the lowest common denominator. This is already in effect a three-way binding, given the tendency of CSU, CDU’s Bavarian sister party, free. If they need the support of greenery to make a parliamentary majority, the chances of leading coherent, neat governments are lean.
Germany must make some radical decisions, such as the reforming of the constitutional debt brake to release public investments, finding money to permanently increase defense consumption and agree to provide EU more financial fire forces. Merz revolves around these questions during the campaign. Only in its closing phase (thanks to the embrace of AFD Trump administration), did the competition begin to reflect the dizzying pace of changes in global affairs.
On Sunday night, as the voices were counting, Merz revealed what could become the most important mission of his chancellor. His goal, he said, was “to achieve independence” from the US -as, since Trump’s administration “is generally indifferent” to the European fate.
It is the ambition of vaults. This could unite this in the theory of CDU and SPD into a kind of national emergency government, especially if the left center fell behind Boris Pistorius, the popular and strong minister of defense in the departure coalition. However, the SPD could be the victims needed and there is no guarantee of two -thirds of the majority in both houses of parliament to change the debt brake.
German European partners are desperate desperate to bravely behave to revive their economy and backwards. Unless they do, they will not only be the competitiveness and security of the EU before threatened, but also its survival. Given that AFD waited to take advantage of a public disappointment with the ability of established parties for delivery, another four years of overcoming the Government would end up in a disaster.